RESUMO
The dilution and amplification effects are important concepts in the field of zoonotic diseases. While the dilution effect predicts that pathogen prevalence is negatively correlated with increased species diversity, the opposite trend is observed when the amplification effect occurs. Understanding how interspecific interactions such as predation and competition within a community influence disease transmission is highly relevant. We explore the conditions under which the dilution and amplification effects arise, using compartmental models that integrate ecological and epidemiological interactions. We formulate an intraguild predation model where each species is divided into two compartments: susceptible and infected individuals. We obtained that increasing predation increases the disease transmission potential of the predator and the density of infected individuals, but decreases the disease transmission potential of the prey, as well as their density. Also, we found that interspecific competition always helps to decrease the number of infected individuals in the population of the two species. Therefore, dilution and amplification effects can be observed simultaneously but depending on different types of cological interactions.
Assuntos
Modelos Epidemiológicos , Modelos Biológicos , Humanos , Animais , Comportamento Predatório , Dinâmica Populacional , Prevalência , Cadeia AlimentarRESUMO
La neumonía es una infección respiratoria aguda (IRA) que afecta a los pulmones, se considera como la segunda causa de muerte asociada a infecciones respiratorias a nivel global. En Colombia hay reportes de aproximadamente 120.000 consultas anuales y 50.000 egresos hospitalarios en niños menores de 5 años. En particular, en el municipio de San Juan de Pasto se presentaron 65 muertes asociadas a esta enfermedad en 2010. A través de la modelación matemática sobre la epidemiología de la neumonía se puede aportar de manera directa al estudio de la distribución, la causalidad y la prevención de dicha enfermedad. El propósito de este artículo es relacionar la epidemiología de la neumonía con la modelación matemática.
Pneumonia is an acute respiratory infection (ARI) which affects the lungs. It is considered as the second cause of death associated with respiratory infections globally. In Colombia, there are reports of approximately 120,000 consultations per year and 50,000 hospital discharges in children under 5. In particular, in the municipality of San Juan de Pasto, there were 65 deaths associated with this disease in 2010. It can be contributed directly to the study of the distribution, causation and prevention of the disease through mathematical modeling about pneumonia epidemiology. The purpose of this review is to relate pneumonia epidemiology with mathematical modeling.
